“Bret’s Impact: Caribbean Braces for Tropical Storm

Tropical Storm Bret, the second named storm of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, is making its way towards the Caribbean, though it’s no longer expected to become a hurricane.

However, it still poses risks to the region. Moreover, Weather forecasters are keeping a close eye on another potential storm, Tropical Depression Four, following closely behind Bret in the Atlantic.

Credit: NOAA

Meteorologists caution that Tropical Storm Bret will continue its north-of-west path and reach the Caribbean before the week’s end. However, the storm has a limited window to strengthen due to increasing wind shear. As it moves into the eastern Caribbean, the forecast indicates that Bret will lose organization starting Friday and into the weekend.

Wind shear, characterized by changing winds’ direction and speed across the Earth’s surface and different atmospheric altitudes, can dismantle or prevent the formation of tropical systems. In the same region, there is some moisture available, but the presence of dry air and potential wind shear could impede Bret’s ability to strengthen significantly.

As of Thursday 11 a.m. EDT, Bret was approximately 130 miles east-northeast of Barbados, moving swiftly at 14 mph with sustained winds of 70 mph. Tropical storm watches have been issued for Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, while Dominica, Saint Lucia, and Martinique are under tropical storm warnings. Saint Lucia has also been placed under a hurricane watch, although meteorologists do not expect Bret to reach hurricane status.

Sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic and much of the Caribbean are above the historical average for this time of year, creating favourable conditions for tropical development.

However, the presence of dry air and increased wind shear in the Caribbean region could limit Bret’s potential strengthening. Additionally, the islands to the north and South America to the south could contribute to dry air and friction, further affecting Bret’s trajectory.

Boaters in the Windward and Leeward islands should prepare for deteriorating weather conditions, including building seas, increasing winds, frequent tropical downpours, and gusty thunderstorms. Gusts with tropical storm force ranging from 40 to 60 mph are expected to affect these regions, with the possibility of hurricane-force gusts in some areas near the storm centre, potentially reaching 100 mph, make sure those anchors are dug deep.

The severity of conditions as Bret progresses westward will depend on its track, size, and strength. The proximity of the storm to the islands will significantly impact wind intensity, rainfall, and the risk of damage and flooding. The northern Caribbean, including the United States and British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola, should be prepared for potentially intense weather over the weekend and into the following week.

Even if Bret remains relatively weak, there is a chance that thunderstorms could erupt away from its center, particularly over the higher mountains of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. This could result in heavy rainfall and flash flooding, as atmospheric pressure decreases and thunderstorm activity becomes more likely.

Bret’s Companion May Not Be Far Behind!

Tropical Storm Bret might soon have a companion in the form of Tropical Storm Cindy. A few hundred miles southeast of Bret, in the central Atlantic, satellite observations on Thursday morning revealed a cluster of thunderstorms displaying weak rotation. These thunderstorms gradually organized and were officially classified as Tropical Depression Four. If this system continues to intensify beyond its current tropical depression status, it will be named Cindy, following the sequence of Atlantic tropical storms for 2023.

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